The Honest Negative: Tens of Thousands of Backtests, Five Majors, No Robust Edge
The capstone of the search-and-overfit arc, and it ends in a negative result — the correct one. A single-symbol dual-timeframe search on ETHUSDT found a config worth +16.35% out-of-sample and +2.62% on an untouched holdout; the Deflated Sharpe Ratio, accounting for ~37,000 trials, deflated it to 0.00. A cross-instrument pass over five majors (ETH/BTC/SOL/BNB/XRP, ~1.18M 1m bars each), selecting by median out-of-sample, kills it for good: dual DSR 0.24 / PBO 0.264, triple DSR 0.14 / PBO 0.327 — both fail the gates. The champion is profitable on 1 of 5 symbols and negative on the rest. This is what the anti-overfit apparatus is for: to stop you from shipping the best of noise as alpha.